Pueblo, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

743
FXUS65 KPUB 152312
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
512 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain showers expected this evening and tomorrow afternoon,
  with dry conditions elsewhere.

- Increased fire weather concerns meteorologically Saturday into
  Sunday.

- Increased chances for precipitation Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025

Tonight: Other than some mountain showers early, quiet weather is
expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. Synoptically,
a shortwave on the backside of a larger trough will push quickly
over the area. With the uptick in forcing, and modest moisture in
place, isolated to scattered light snow showers are expected to be
ongoing during the evening hours along the mountains, where forcing
will be greatest. With that said though, as diurnal instability
wanes through the evening, showers will decrease in coverage, with
dry conditions returning during the overnight hours. Beyond all of
that, clouds over the area will clear for most throughout the night,
with winds becoming light across the region, except along the
mountains, where breezy winds will persist into Friday morning. As
for temperatures, a cool and slightly below seasonal lows night is
anticipated thanks to weakening winds and clearing skies. Given all
of that, the plains will fall into the low to mid 40s, the valleys
into the upper 20s to mid 30s, and the mountains into the 20s.

Tomorrow: For the end of the week, quiet weather continues for south
central and southeastern Colorado, other than some afternoon
mountain showers. Flow will become mostly westerly over the area
throughout the day. While no major forcing is anticipated, modest
orographic forcing will be ongoing, and this coupled with minor
diurnal instability, is expected to allow for isolated light snow
showers to blossom along the mountains during the afternoon.
Elsewhere, dry conditions will prevail. Otherwise, winds will remain
breezy around 10 to 15 mph, with clear skies early becoming partly
cloudy during the afternoon hours. Looking at temperatures, a warm
but near seasonal value day is expected, with the plains rising into
the 70s, the valleys into the 60s, and the mountains into the upper
30s to 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025

There is decent model agreement with the upper level pattern
evolution through the extended period, with differences in the
small details.

Friday night through Saturday...weak energy in westerly flow
aloft will allow for ongoing evening convection, mainly across
the Central Mountains. This activity looks to dissipate after
sunset and the loss of daytime heating, with clearing conditions
across the area by Saturday morning.

On Saturday, a quick moving upper shortwave is forecast to
track northeast out of New Mexico and into western Kansas by the
evening. Southeasterly flow will spread across the Plains
through the day. The GFS develops a dryline boundary, from the
Palmer Divide, southeast to Baca County. The NAM and extended
RRFS bring the southeasterly winds all the way back into the
I-25 corridor. Moisture is limited, with dewpoints in the upper
30s, which limits afternoon instability, with up to 500 j/kg of
SBCAPE on the Plains. The GFS is most aggressive with developing
isolated thunderstorms from the Palmer Divide, into Kiowa
County, while the higher-resolution guidance has a few storms
further south. Not too excited overall, with the limited
moisture and instability, however, a couple of storms could
produce small hail and gusty outflow winds. Over the Mountains,
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be
possible, dissipating after sunset. For areas of the San Luis
Valley, low relative humidity values and gusty winds will likely
produce spotty, elevated fire weather conditions.

Sunday...the next upper trough is forecast to dig across Utah
and begin to impact southern Colorado. Increasing southwesterly
flow will spread across the region, with low humidity values
spreading from the San Luis Valley, into the Plains. Widespread,
critical fire weather conditions will be present, and fuels will
have to be monitored. Wind gusts in excess of 35 mph are
forecast by the afternoon. This could lead to areas of blowing
dust. Moisture will begin to spread into the Continental Divide
by the afternoon, with increased showers during the evening and
overnight.

Monday into Tuesday...the upper trough will eject northeast by
Monday morning, while a stronger system deepens on the back side
and moves across Colorado Monday into Tuesday. This will send a
cold front across the Plains Monday morning, along with the
potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms for much of
southern Colorado. The GFS brings decent QPF amounts to the
Plains late Monday into Tuesday morning, while the rest of the
long range guidance is more modest in totals. The GFS is also
the most widespread with precipitation, with the ECMWF and ICON
not as widespread. But, the potential does exist for
precipitation for much of southern Colorado. Temperatures will
be cooler Monday and Tuesday, with highs falling from the lower
to mid 80s Saturday and Sunday, down into the 60s and 70s Monday
and Tuesday.

Wednesday into Thursday...flat zonal flow is forecast to develop
for mid next week. Overall, not much energy in the flow to work
with, with mainly dry conditions forecast for the region.
Temperatures will also begin to increase with highs back near 80
during this time period.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 422 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025

Variable mid/high VFR cloudiness will give way to clearing
skies overnight before returning again on Fri. Gusty westerly
winds will gradually taper down, though will remain elevated
overnight, especially at KPUB where it could be intermittently
gusty again overnight. Winds will increase again tomorrow
afternoon for all three terminals with west to northwest winds
gusting up to 25 kts. KCOS may see another period of southeast
winds during the morning before the west northwest winds spread
into the terminal around 18-19z.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT